Deep Dives

Long-form essays and multi-part series: strategy, finance, technology.
Series
Reading Nvidia: On strategy, defensibility, and capital in the AI era

Moats, tokens-per-watt, and capex—read through Nvidia and the AI build-out. · Started Apr 2026 · 4 of 7 sections published

Part 0 · Series overview 6 min Apr 2026

Moats, tokens-per-watt, and capex—read through Nvidia and the AI build-out.

Part 1 · Nvidia, or the Repricing of a Watt 18 min LONG READ May 2026

Tokens per watt, bottleneck inversion, and the Hopper–Blackwell arithmetic.

Part 2 · The Moat That Cannot Be Coded 24 min LONG READ May 2026

Tacit knowledge, CUDA as institutional memory, and who captures AI value when models commoditise.

Part 3 · Pareto Frontiers and Lock-In 25 min LONG READ May 2026

What the inference market and Nvidia's no-surge-pricing tell us about strategic decisions in multi-dimensional spaces.

Part 4 · The Return of the Real World upcoming
Part 5 · The Job and the Task upcoming
Part 6 · A Note on China upcoming
Part 7 · Drawing the AI Stack upcoming
Series
AI × Energy: Powering the AI Revolution

Grids, GPUs, and the physics of running intelligence at planetary scale.

Watts, wires, and who controls the stack—not the headline model. · Started Mar 2026 · 5 of 5 sections published

Part 0 · Introduction 7 min Mar 2026

Watts, wires, and who controls the stack—not the headline model.

Part 1 · Energy and Civilization (Smil) 17 min LONG READ Mar 2026

Smil on why transitions take generations, welfare at ~110 GJ, and why energy enables but never decides.

Part 2 · Power Density (Smil) 18 min LONG READ Apr 2026

Land and power density as the real limit on decarbonisation—and why hyperscalers are buying nuclear.

Part 3 · The 84% Gap (Subran) 24 min LONG READ Apr 2026

Europe's climate funding gap vs AI capex—same capital pool, different clocks.

Part 4 · The New Map (Yergin) 26 min LONG READ Jun 2026

Yergin's cartographic method—shale, Malacca, path dependence—and why the AI race is an energy and supply-chain story.

Part 5 · The Synthesis upcoming
Series
Deployment

From trust loops to deployment metabolism: how products actually reach the market.

How frontier tech earns trust in the field, and a simple map of the constraints that set deployment speed. · Started Oct 2025 · 3 of 3 sections published

Part 0 · Series overview 2 min Oct 2025

How frontier tech earns trust in the field, and a simple map of the constraints that set deployment speed.

Part 1 · The deployment paradox 7 min Oct 2025

You need trust to deploy, but you need deployment to earn trust. How to resolve the circular dependency.

Part 2 · Deployment metabolism 10 min Oct 2025

A framework for diagnosing your five deployment forces and understanding how constraints determine which strategic approaches can work.

Other deep dives
2025
AI Moats Are Different: A Framework for Competitive Advantage Oct 2025 Why traditional moats fail in AI, and a four-level framework for building defensible positions: technical foundation, product depth, market position, sustainability. · 16 min
Market Sizing for Founders Oct 2025 A practical framework for sizing markets when you're building something new. · 23 min
AI as Normal Technology: Investing Beyond the Illusion of Magic Sep 2025 General-purpose technologies diffuse slowly and unevenly. AI will follow similar patterns. Value creation depends on when bottlenecks collapse, not benchmark scores. · 21 min