Deep Dives

Long-form essays and multi-part series: strategy, finance, technology.
Series
AI × Energy

Grids, GPUs, and the physics of running intelligence at planetary scale.

Why the next bottleneck isn’t the model: it’s watts, wires, and who controls the stack. · Started Mar 2026 · 4 of 5 sections published

Introduction 7 min Mar 2026

Why the next bottleneck isn’t the model: it’s watts, wires, and who controls the stack.

Part 1 · Energy and Civilization (Smil) 17 min LONG READ Mar 2026

Vaclav Smil reveals why transitions take generations, why welfare saturates at 110 GJ, and why energy enables but never determines.

Part 2 · Power Density (Smil) 18 min LONG READ Apr 2026

Vaclav Smil argues that land will determine how fast civilisation can decarbonise. A decade later, his framework explains why hyperscalers are buying nuclear plants.

Part 3 · The 84% Gap (Subran) 24 min LONG READ Apr 2026

Subran and Zimmer's climate ledger: Europe needs EUR 480 billion more per year, and AI capex now competes for the same capital pool.

Part 4 · The New Map (Yergin) upcoming
Part 5 · The Synthesis: Jevons Meets Jensen upcoming
Series
Deployment

From trust loops to deployment metabolism: how products actually reach the market.

How frontier tech earns trust in the field, and a simple map of the constraints that set deployment speed. · Started Oct 2025 · 3 of 3 sections published

Series overview 2 min Oct 2025

How frontier tech earns trust in the field, and a simple map of the constraints that set deployment speed.

Part 1 · The deployment paradox 7 min Oct 2025

You need trust to deploy, but you need deployment to earn trust. How to resolve the circular dependency.

Part 2 · Deployment metabolism 10 min Oct 2025

A framework for diagnosing your five deployment forces and understanding how constraints determine which strategic approaches can work.

Other deep dives
2026
Four Books, One Synthesis: Can We Power the Intelligence Revolution? Mar 2026 Energy, compute and the thermodynamic ceiling of AI scaling. · 7 min
2025
Intelligence Isn't the Moat Anymore: The New Frontier Is Verification Nov 2025 AI isn't progressing evenly. Jason Wei argues the real question isn't when it changes everything, but which kinds of tasks it conquers first, and why verification, not intelligence, defines the next frontier. · 9 min
AI Moats Are Different: A Framework for Competitive Advantage Oct 2025 Why traditional moats fail in AI, and a four-level framework for building defensible positions: technical foundation, product depth, market position, sustainability. · 16 min
Market Sizing for Founders Oct 2025 A practical framework for sizing markets when you're building something new. · 23 min
On Systemic Errors: Probabilistic LLMs at Scale Sep 2025 When your system is wrong 2% of the time but processes a billion requests. · 8 min
AI as Normal Technology: Investing Beyond the Illusion of Magic Sep 2025 General-purpose technologies diffuse slowly and unevenly. AI will follow similar patterns. Value creation depends on when bottlenecks collapse, not benchmark scores. · 21 min